A cyclopean masonry dam built between steep rocky cliffs, with a dry spillway and a small pool of water at its base. 

5 Dam Risk Assessment and Inspection Strategies for a Changing Landscape

5 Dam Risk Assessment and Inspection Strategies for a Changing Landscape

A cyclopean masonry dam built between steep rocky cliffs, with a dry spillway and a small pool of water at its base. 
    • More than 60% of U.S. dams are over 50 years old, and evolving risk factors and outdated design standards necessitate proactive, resilience-based management.
    • Targeted strategies—like phased analysis for reclassified dams or risk-based prioritization for repairs—help owners allocate resources wisely and avoid overdesign.
    • Real-world case studies show the value of routine maintenance programs, strategic seismic reassessments, and adaptable designs that increase safety without excessive cost.
    • Dam owners can ensure long-term infrastructure stability and public safety by layering risk assessments, empowering internal teams, and embracing continuous planning.

Across the U.S., dam infrastructure is aging while risk factors evolve, making proactive solutions more critical than ever. More than 60% of the nation’s dams are over 50 years old, and many were designed using data and assumptions that are now outdated.

As regulations and loading demands change, dam owners must address new challenges while managing limited budgets and maintaining safety. Despite the complexity, practical solutions are within reach. By anticipating common risk scenarios and applying targeted strategies, dam owners can respond confidently and extend the useful life of their assets.

This blog draws from real-world case studies highlighting how thoughtful design, data-driven decisions, and proactive planning lead to more resilient infrastructure.

The Aging Dam Landscape

Dam safety is at a critical crossroads. Many structures were built before today’s understanding of seismic loading, hydrologic variability, and long-term material performance. Add in deferred maintenance, increased downstream development, and the effects of changing weather patterns, and it’s clear why a modernized approach is essential.

Rather than reacting to problems as they arise, dam owners are shifting toward resilience-based design and planning—adapting systems, teams, and strategies to better absorb, recover from, and mitigate disruption. 

Five Real-World Scenarios and How to Respond

1. Your Dam Was Reclassified. Now What?

Hazard classification is based not on the structural safety of the dam itself but on the potential consequences if the dam were to fail. If your dam is reclassified from “low” to “significant” or “high” hazard, regulatory expectations and risk analysis requirements will likely increase. 

Key Insight: A phased analysis approach saves time, directs funding more efficiently, and ensures that each step is justified by data.

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Owner Strategy:

  • Begin with 2D or linear 3D models to quickly evaluate dam stability.
  • Use those results to determine whether a more complex nonlinear analysis is warranted.
  • Avoid unnecessary overdesign by tailoring the scope based on expected dam behavior.

2. Deterioration is Worsening. How Do You Prioritize Repairs?

Timely repairs were essential at a high hazard dam in Montana after a 2019 inspection revealed a significant increase in concrete deterioration that had been monitored for years. Without corrective action, the worsening condition risked triggering a reservoir restriction that would have impacted the dam’s primary function of supplying water to the city of Butte.

Key Insight: Knowing why deterioration is happening is just as important as identifying where it’s occurring.

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Owner Strategy:

    • Conduct petrographic testing to assess factors like alkali-silica reaction, poor water-cement ratios, or lack of air entrainment.
    • Match the repair method to the specific cause rather than applying generalized fixes.
    • Prioritize areas that affect structural integrity, using risk-based decision-making to guide limited resources.

3. Risk Assessments Revealed New Failure Modes. How Do You Adapt?

A series of risk workshops uncovered an erosion vulnerability at the toe and abutment of a dam, triggered by overtopping events—an issue that, if left unaddressed, could contribute to dam failure.

Key Insight: Mitigation doesn’t have to mean a complete redesign. Instead, focus on the most impactful intervention.

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Owner Strategy:

  • Address the root cause by preventing the initiator (e.g., reducing overtopping through spillway upgrades).
  • Increase resistance with erosion protection like riprap, articulated concrete blocks, or reinforced slabs.
  • Consider incorporating redundancy into the design to provide added layers of safety.

These changes reduce risk and build long-term confidence in the structure’s performance.

4. An Aging Dam Needs Ongoing Maintenance. How Do You Stay Ahead of It?

An 80-year-old slab and buttress dam in Texas underwent a long-term repair program that empowered internal staff to manage and execute consistent operation and maintenance. Because slab and buttress dams rely heavily on reinforcement for structural integrity, the repair program prioritized addressing reinforcement deterioration to ensure stability and performance.

Key Insight: Routine, prioritized maintenance is far more cost-effective than emergency repairs or full replacements.

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Owner Strategy:

  • Create a repair guide that includes damage classification, priority rankings, and step-by-step repair procedures.
  • Use real-world examples and common failure patterns to train internal teams.
  • Build a culture of stewardship. Regular dam inspection and documentation help catch issues early and reduce lifecycle costs.

5. Seismic Loads Have Increased. How Do You Reassess Performance?

At a concrete gravity dam constructed in the 1920s, updated seismic hazard estimates doubled, prompting a thorough reevaluation of dam stability. These assessments help identify failure modes and guide targeted updates to the dam and its appurtenances to strengthen performance. In this case, rapid analysis was essential to help the owner determine whether the dam still met regulatory strength and stability requirements under extreme loads, and whether immediate risk reduction measures were necessary.

Key Insight: Rather than jumping to the most complex analysis, layer your approach.

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Owner Strategy:

  • Start with spreadsheet-based, 2D rigid-body analyses to screen performance.
  • Progress to a linear analysis to confirm assumptions and evaluate geometry.
  • Advance to nonlinear models only if results indicate a need.

This strategic, phased method allows teams to remain agile and cost-efficient, avoiding unnecessary complexity while ensuring compliance and safety.

Resilience Starts with Proactive Planning

These five scenarios reflect a broader truth: resilience isn’t just about reacting to change; it’s about planning for it with confidence. With the right strategies—grounded in solid risk analysis, reliable operation and maintenance, and a holistic understanding of the dam and its appurtenances—dam owners can manage risk, meet evolving regulations, and strengthen the infrastructure their communities rely on.

At GFT, we combine deep technical expertise with innovative thinking to help clients tackle complex dam safety challenges head-on. If you’re ready to explore practical, forward-looking solutions for your dam infrastructure, let’s connect. Together, we can strengthen communities through safer, more resilient infrastructure.

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Looking to dive deeper into dam safety, risk management, and practical solutions? These resources offer valuable insights, expert perspectives, and professional development opportunities to support your next steps. 

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