The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s newly released framework for Colorado River operations after 2026 reflects an increasingly dire reality: managing shortages is no longer enough. Federal officials have proposed an adaptive operating approach designed to protect critical infrastructure at Lake Powell and Lake Mead while maintaining flexibility through 2036 as drought and declining river flows continue to strain the system that supplies water to seven states, millions of people, and millions of acres of highly productive farmland.  

The debate over the Colorado River is not just about water allocation, but also about engineering and infrastructure. The preferred framework is driven by concerns over how to continue delivering water if Lake Powell falls below the elevation required for normal hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam. Lake Powell is currently at its lowest levels in years and has not been 100% full since the early 1980s.   

The Lake Mead “bathtub drain” project, also known as the Low Lake Level Pumping Station and related infrastructure, was designed to keep water moving through the Colorado River system if Lake Mead’s elevation becomes extremely low. The project uses large pumps and intake structures to draw water from lower levels of the reservoir and deliver it to the existing water-delivery system. In effect, it provides a backup to access water below the level of the normal intakes — like creating a “drain” at the bottom of the bathtub so water can still be drawn out when the water level drops. I was fortunate enough to visit this tunnel of the project before it was completed.  

At Lake Powell, hydropower generation would stop when the reservoir drops below 3,490 feet, leaving releases dependent on river outlet works that were never intended for long-term operation under such stark conditions. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has therefore placed the protection of these facilities at the center of future river management.  

While operational changes may reduce our collective risk in the short term, long-term resilience will likely require substantial investments in infrastructure, water supply diversification, and conservation. It will also require the support of the states, utilities, and business interests that will share in the implementation of this strategy. And it will require leadership.  

Success will require hard decisions and the leadership necessary to build constructive coalitions to implement them.  

One of the most direct responses to the Lake Powell challenge would be engineering modifications to Glen Canyon Dam itself. During the environmental review process, Lower Basin states argued that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation should evaluate physical improvements to the dam rather than treating low-elevation operating limitations as fixed constraints.

Responsible solutions should include the following:

• Design and Construction of new low-level outlet tunnels.
• Expansion or rehabilitation of existing outlet works.
• Additional bypass infrastructure independent of hydropower facilities.
• Cavitation protection and energy-dissipation improvements.
• Restoring natural conditions downstream for native species.

Improvements and modifications could allow reliable releases even if lake levels fall below power-generation boundaries. Instead of managing water levels just to protect aging infrastructure, engineered solutions could provide greater operational solutions during droughts. But even these improvements are not enough.

It is certainly time to look at other options.

Large-scale seawater desalination remains one of the most commonly discussed options for reducing our dependence on the Colorado River. Coastal desalination facilities in California or Mexico could generate substantial new supplies while preserving river water for inland communities and agriculture.

One idea discussed by water leaders involves a large desalination facility on the Sea of Cortez in Mexico. By implementing a water-exchange arrangement, desalinated water could serve coastal customers while an equal amount of Colorado River water remains available in other locations in the water basin. This strategy could potentially add hundreds of thousands of acre-feet annually to regional water availability for all parties involved.

As with most large desalination projects, there are challenges, including high capital costs, significant energy requirements, environmental concerns related to brine disposal, and international agreements between Mexico and the U.S.

To many experts, wastewater recycling offers the most practical and cost-effective source of new supply. Cities such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego have significant opportunities to increase wastewater recycling through the following programs:

• Direct potable reuse.
• Indirect potable reuse through groundwater recharge.
• Advanced treatment for industrial and municipal applications.

Unlike river flows, recycled water provides a highly reliable source that is largely independent of annual precipitation and snowpack conditions. As drought intensifies across the Southwest, water reuse is considered an increasingly practical option for long-term water security.

Agriculture remains the largest user of Colorado River water, accounting for approximately three-quarters of total consumption. While the food and fiber products produced from these water supplies is tremendously important to the U.S., socially and economically, it is still a significant amount of water use. Even modest improvements could generate substantial savings.

The following are some of the engineering and management measures that could be implemented more broadly throughout the Southwest:

• Precision irrigation technologies.
• Soil moisture monitoring systems.
• Canal lining projects that reduce seepage losses.
• Canal evaporation prevention.
• Automated water-delivery controls.
• Expansion of drip irrigation systems.

Many farms employ the most contemporary water management practices. But agricultural conservation could also yield immense benefits. In some cases, water conserved through agricultural modernization could even exceed the yield of new supply projects while requiring far lower capital investments.

As I understand it, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s preferred framework emphasizes adaptive reservoir management and periodic adjustments of the operating guidelines through 2036. Future operations are expected to include continued coordination between Lake Powell and Lake Mead, with updated rules based on evolving hydrologic conditions in real time. Incorporating new technology could also significantly improve system performance through the following:

• Advanced runoff forecasting.
• AI-assisted reservoir modeling.
• Expanded snowpack monitoring.
• Dynamic release scheduling.
• Basin-wide decision support systems.

These advanced technologies would assist water operators in maximizing limited supplies and responding more quickly to changing conditions.

A decline in Lake Powell elevations threatens not only water deliveries but also hydropower generation. Losing this capacity would be problematic because hydropower is an invaluable energy source in the American West. Because Glen Canyon Dam loses generating capability below 3,490 feet, the region must consider alternative energy resources.

Potential replacements include:

• Utility-scale solar energy.
• Battery storage systems.
• Pumped-storage hydropower.
• Expanded transmission infrastructure.
• Increasing low head unit efficiency.

Reducing our collective dependence on Glen Canyon’s power generation would allow reservoir operations to prioritize water-delivery reliability rather than maintaining elevations primarily for electricity production.

Another important strategy is expanding groundwater banking programs. During wet years, excess supplies can be stored underground and recovered during drought.

Arizona’s existing groundwater banking could serve as a model for how aquifers can function as long-term storage reservoirs without the evaporation losses associated with surface reservoirs. Expanding similar programs throughout the basin could provide a valuable drought reserve.

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s framework acknowledges that the Colorado River faces a future defined by uncertainty, declining runoff, and increasing pressure on aging infrastructure.

There is no single answer or project that will completely solve the basin’s challenges. The road to improvement will be a combination or engineering services and political will:

• Engineering upgrades to Glen Canyon Dam.
• Expanded wastewater recycling.
• Agricultural conservation and efficiency improvements.
• Strategic desalination investments.
• Groundwater banking and aquifer recharge.
• Alternative energy development to offset hydropower losses.

Collectively, these approaches would address the immediate engineering challenges facing Lake Powell while also meeting the long-term need for a more reliable and diversified water future for communities that depend on the Colorado River.

It’s been a long time since my brother and I sat on the banks of a small creek in Southern Arizona, cooling off on a hot day. Now, many years later, I am continuing my search so that all of us who live in the Southwest can enjoy a secure water supply, please reach out if you’d like to join us in this journey!